Know the economics behind your next challenge.
Turn fees, pass rates and payout assumptions into a clear cost-per-funded, payout probability and expected-value model.
Build your model
Start with realistic historical assumptions. Trade-level risk, reward and win rate can be refined later.
Live results
Chance of at least one result
Assumes attempts are independent. Copied or identical trades across accounts can make outcomes highly correlated.
Expected payout value
One model, three outcomes
A good plan should not work only under optimistic assumptions.
Passing is only the first gate.
A high pass rate can still produce poor economics if funded accounts rarely reach payout. Compare the full chain, not one isolated metric.
Cost per funded +
Expected evaluation spend until a pass, plus activation and other funded costs. Reset usage is included as a blended retry cost.
Challenge → payout probability +
pass rate × first payout rate. A 20% pass rate and 40% funded-to-payout rate produces an 8% end-to-end probability.
Lifetime expected value +
Each payout amount is weighted by its reach probability, adjusted by profit split and costs, then multiplied by challenge pass probability.
Important statistical caution +
Small samples are noisy. Track cohorts by firm, ruleset, account size, strategy and risk level. Active accounts should not yet be counted as wins or failures.
Track the real data behind your model.
PropGridX keeps account rules, daily results, fees, payouts and account history together—so assumptions can become measurable statistics.